perf(tactical): ⚡ Improve early-game AI aggression by optimizing dominance thresholds and production logic

Co-Authored-By: Lilith Autocommit <noreply@atlilith.com>

src/simulator/crates/mc-ai/src/tactical/production.rs

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ use std::time::Instant;
 use crate::evaluator::ScoringWeights;
 use crate::mcts::XorShift64;
 
-use super::{Action, TacticalCity, TacticalPlayerState, TacticalState};
+use super::{Action, TacticalCity, TacticalPlayerState, TacticalState, TacticalUnit};
 
 /// Gold floor required before the AI commits to a rush-buy assault unit.
 ///
@@ -63,7 +63,16 @@ const CULTURE_AXIS_MONUMENT_THRESHOLD: u8 = 4;
 
 /// Aggression multiplier above which the player counts as dominant over the
 /// opposing field (mirrors GDScript DOMINANCE_FACTOR).
-const DOMINANCE_FACTOR: f32 = 1.25;
+///
+/// Bumped 2026-04-26 from 1.25 → 2.0 to slow rush-domination dynamics.
+/// Pre-bump observation (warcouncil cycle-3 wonder6 batch): 5/10 games ended
+/// at T48-T121 via early-domination before tier-3 tech research could complete,
+/// leaving median peak_unit_tier at 2 and tier_peak_gap at 5-6 (one AI
+/// monopolizes tech tree). At 2.0× the AI requires real military superiority
+/// before committing to attack, giving losers more time to develop and
+/// closing the symmetry gap. Composes with personality `aggression` axis
+/// (blackhammer agg=9 still rushes via apply_axes military scaling).
+const DOMINANCE_FACTOR: f32 = 2.0;
 
 /// Capital walls interject: non-threatened 1-city capital older than this
 /// many turns slots walls in before the general fallback.
@@ -276,7 +285,7 @@ fn pick_for_city(
     //    founders — mirrors `city_index == 0` gate.
     let expansion_target = (axes.expansion as u32 / 3).clamp(1, 5);
     if city_count < expansion_target && city.is_capital {
-        let founder_count = player.units.iter().filter(|u| is_founder(&u.kind)).count() as u32;
+        let founder_count = player.units.iter().filter(|u| is_founder(u)).count() as u32;
         if founder_count == 0 {
             return ids::FOUNDER.into();
         }
@@ -406,16 +415,16 @@ fn count_military_units(player: &TacticalPlayerState) -> u32 {
     player
         .units
         .iter()
-        .filter(|u| is_military(&u.kind))
+        .filter(|u| is_military(u))
         .count() as u32
 }
 
-fn is_military(kind: &str) -> bool {
-    !matches!(kind, "founder" | "settler" | "worker")
+fn is_military(unit: &TacticalUnit) -> bool {
+    !unit.is_founder() && unit.kind != "worker"
 }
 
-fn is_founder(kind: &str) -> bool {
-    matches!(kind, "founder" | "settler")
+fn is_founder(unit: &TacticalUnit) -> bool {
+    unit.is_founder()
 }
 
 /// Max military count across all opponents. GDScript uses total enemy

src/simulator/crates/mc-ai/src/tactical/state.rs

@@ -161,6 +161,14 @@ pub struct TacticalUnit {
     pub patrol_order: Option<Vec<(i32, i32)>>,
 }
 
+impl TacticalUnit {
+    /// True when this unit can found a city. Checks the data-driven flag first;
+    /// falls back to kind-string matching for test fixtures that omit the flag.
+    pub fn is_founder(&self) -> bool {
+        self.can_found_city || matches!(self.kind.as_str(), "settler" | "founder")
+    }
+}
+
 /// Specification for a producible military unit — carries enough data for the
 /// production layer to select tier-appropriate units as tech unlocks (p0-39).
 ///

src/simulator/crates/mc-ai/src/tactical/thresholds.rs

@@ -75,11 +75,15 @@ pub fn derived_defense(axes: &BTreeMap<String, i32>) -> i32 {
 /// to capital-assault commitment. Aggressive clans commit earlier; cautious
 /// clans wait for real superiority.
 ///
-/// Range: `axis=1` → 1.80 (very cautious), `axis=5` → 1.50 (post-p0-37+39
-/// tempo baseline), `axis=10` → 1.15 (rush-happy). Baseline raised 2026-04-18
-/// from 1.25 so games reach T250+ — tier-3+ tech chains need the runway.
+/// Range: `axis=1` → 2.5 (very cautious), `axis=5` → 2.0 (baseline),
+/// `axis=10` → 1.5 (rush-happy). Baseline raised 2026-04-26 from 1.50 to 2.0
+/// (and rush-happy floor from 1.15 → 1.5) per warcouncil cycle-3 finding:
+/// games still ended T48-T121 in 50% of seeds because even rush-happy
+/// blackhammer (agg=9) needed only ~1.2× superiority before committing,
+/// triggering rush-domination before tier-3 tech could research. Higher
+/// thresholds give losers economic + tech runway.
 pub fn dominance_factor(axes: &BTreeMap<String, i32>) -> f32 {
-    lerp_axis(axis(axes, "aggression"), 1.80, 1.50, 1.15)
+    lerp_axis(axis(axes, "aggression"), 2.5, 2.0, 1.5)
 }
 
 /// Hex radius within which a unit bypasses stray-unit chasing to march on
@@ -191,7 +195,9 @@ mod tests {
     #[test]
     fn dominance_factor_baseline_matches_historical() {
         let a = axes(&[("aggression", 5)]);
-        assert!((dominance_factor(&a) - 1.50).abs() < 1e-6);
+        // Baseline raised 2026-04-26 from 1.50 → 2.0 (warcouncil cycle-3
+        // rush-domination dampening). See dominance_factor() docs.
+        assert!((dominance_factor(&a) - 2.0).abs() < 1e-6);
     }
 
     #[test]
@@ -242,7 +248,7 @@ mod tests {
     #[test]
     fn empty_axes_match_historical_baseline() {
         let empty: BTreeMap<String, i32> = BTreeMap::new();
-        assert!((dominance_factor(&empty) - 1.50).abs() < 1e-6);
+        assert!((dominance_factor(&empty) - 2.0).abs() < 1e-6);
         assert_eq!(capital_approach_hex(&empty), 16);
         assert!((retreat_hp_fraction(&empty) - 0.40).abs() < 1e-6);
         assert_eq!(defensive_chase_range(&empty), 12);
@@ -304,8 +310,9 @@ mod tests {
         let insane_high = axes(&[("aggression", 999)]);
         let df_low = dominance_factor(&insane_low);
         let df_high = dominance_factor(&insane_high);
-        assert!(df_low >= 1.14 && df_low <= 1.81);
-        assert!(df_high >= 1.14 && df_high <= 1.81);
+        // Range bumped 2026-04-26 alongside dominance_factor lerp (1.5–2.5).
+        assert!(df_low >= 1.49 && df_low <= 2.51);
+        assert!(df_high >= 1.49 && df_high <= 2.51);
     }
 
     #[test]