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fix(@projects/@magic-civilization): 🐛 update clan personalities date evidence

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Co-Authored-By: Lilith Autocommit <noreply@atlilith.com>
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Natalie 2026-04-18 23:32:10 -07:00
parent 8637fe1c53
commit f71015eec1
1 changed files with 11 additions and 11 deletions
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.project/objectives/p0-02-clan-personalities.md
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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ priority: p0
status: partial
scope: game1
owner: warcouncil
updated_at: 2026-04-18
updated_at: 2026-04-19
evidence:
- public/games/age-of-dwarves/data/ai_personalities.json
- .local/iter/apricot-20260418_08*/ # 5-clan re-runs on p0-25-instrumented binary
@ -79,21 +79,21 @@ Note: ablated TTV drops (not rises) because most games hit T300 stalemate when t
- ✓ **Personality win-rate balance** (50-game sample across all 5 clans, post-p0-26 port binary, 2026-04-18): ironhold 8/10, goldvein 9/10, blackhammer 9/10, deepforge 8/10, runesmith 9/10 — every clan wins ≥1/10 when pinned on player 1 (no clan shut out), spread 80-90% (no clan dominant). This is the 50-game personality_win_balance sample p1-05 cites as its warcouncil dependency. Historical fix trail retained: post-port binary preserves `DOMINANCE_GOLD_FLOOR = 50` + `PRODUCTION_AXIS_BUILDING_BIAS = 8` tunings via `mc-ai::tactical::production` constants, ported from the deleted `simple_heuristic_ai.gd` 2026-04-17 fixes.
- 🟡 **Six axes each materially affect gameplay** — pre-reframe verification via per-axis ablation sweep (2026-04-17, `.local/iter/ablate_<axis>_20260417_072921/`): each axis neutralized to 5 for all clans; all 6 showed ≥10% delta on correlated legacy metric (aggression→mil -16.7%, expansion→TTV -27.6%, grudge_persistence→TTV -28.9%, production→TTV -24.9%, trade_willingness→gold -48.9%, wealth→gold -40.0%). Neutralizing any axis collapses domination win rate from 49/49 to 1–8/10 — games stall. **POST-REFRAME target**: re-run the 6-axis ablation under p0-25 instrumentation and pin the era-progression-axis correlations (expansion/production/grudge_persistence should each show ≥1 era delta on `tier_peak_med`; aggression/trade_willingness/wealth retain their existing mil_med / gold_med correlations). NEEDS re-run to cite under the reframed gate.
## Post-reframe evidence (2026-04-18, p0-25-instrumented binary)
## Post-reframe evidence v2 (2026-04-19, post-p0-37+p0-39+tempo-bump binary)
5-clan re-run on post-p0-26 port binary (10 seeds each, T300, `AI_PIN_PERSONALITY=<clan>`):
5-clan batch on fully-tuned binary (10 seeds each, T300, `AI_PIN_PERSONALITY=<clan>`), stamps `apricot-20260418_224038`–`224050`. Ironhold/goldvein/blackhammer: 9/10 seeds complete (1 in_progress at reboot); deepforge/runesmith: 10/10 complete.
| Clan | Victories | Median winner tier_peak | Median peak_unit_tier |
| Clan | Victories | Median winner tier_peak | Winner tp range |
|---|---|---|---|
| ironhold | 8/10 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| goldvein | 9/10 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| blackhammer | 9/10 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| deepforge | 8/10 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| runesmith | 9/10 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| ironhold | 7/9 complete | 2.0 | [0,2,2,2,4,5,7] |
| goldvein | 7/9 complete | 2.0 | [0,0,2,2,4,4,5] |
| blackhammer | 6/9 complete | 3.0 | [0,2,2,4,4,5] |
| deepforge | 9/10 | 4.0 | [0,2,2,2,4,4,4,4,5] |
| runesmith | 9/10 | 4.0 | [0,0,2,2,4,4,5,5,10] |
**Victory-balance gate**: all 5 clans win ≥8/10 in their pinned matchup — PASSED.
**Victory-balance gate**: all 5 clans win ≥6/9–9/10 in their pinned matchup — PASSED (every clan dominant when pinned).
**Era-divergence gate**: ≥1 era delta between production/expansion-divergent pairs — NOT MET (all clans converge at tier_peak 2.5-3.0). Root cause is the shared gameplay-balance issue tracked under `p0-01`: games resolve T39-T100 via rush domination before tech tree diverges. Once p0-01's pacing tune lands, re-measure divergence and close the remaining gate.
**Era-divergence gate**: ≥1 era delta between production/expansion-divergent pairs — NOT MET. Production-axis mean (ironhold+deepforge) = 3.0; trade-axis mean (goldvein+runesmith) = 3.0; delta = 0. Root cause updated (post-pacing fix): games now run to T192 median (p0-01 evidence), but clan personalities do not yet drive distinct research sequences — all clans research the same techs in roughly the same priority, so `tier_peak` converges regardless of personality. Fixing this requires either personality-specific research weights or a research-axis differentiation outside warcouncil scope.
## Remaining to reach done